* Note: Prices are in Million (M) USD.
Description:
These criteria used Company's Cash, EBITDA and Debt balance to determines its fair value:
Cash : $152 M
Debt : $8 M
EBITDA : $-437 M
Since Ebitda is less than 0, 0 points assigned.
This criteria used industry in which company operates:
Sector: Health care
Industry: Biotechnology
Biotechnology detected → treating as non-Technology. 3 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's Price To Earning (P/E) Ratio to determines its fair value:
Forward PE Ratio: 0.12
Since Forward PE Ratio is less than 15, 5 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's ability to convert Sales into free cash flow to determine fair value:
Using last 3 overlapping fiscal years (max 20).Average Free Cash Flow: $-167 M
Average Revenue: $0 M
Revenue Converted To Free Cash Flow (%): 0.0%
Since Free Cash Flow (FCF) to Revenue percentage is non-positive, 0 point assigned.
This criteria used company's growth potential to calculate its fair value:
Latest Revenue (2024-12-31): $0 M
Revenue 2 Years Ago (2022-12-31): $0 M
Total Growth over 2 Years: 0.0%
2-Year Revenue CAGR (Historical): 0.0%
Forward 5-Year CAGR (Tapered): 0.0%
Since historical Revenue CAGR is between 0 - 5, 1 point assigned.
This criteria used Company's ability to buy back its own share:
Error: This stock does not have 5 years of share count data.Using default values for calculation.
Based on default values, 0 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's dividend payout ratio to determine its fair value:
Next Year Earnings Per Share (EPS): $-3.27
Trailing 12-Month Earnings Per Share (EPS): $33.18
Average Earnings Per Share (EPS): $33.18
Dividend Per Share (DPS): $0
Payout Ratio: 0%
Dividend Yield: 0%
⚠️ Caution: Negative earnings detected — Further research is recommended - Next Fiscal Yr EPS: $-3.27
Since Dividend Per Share is less than or equal to 0, 0 point assigned.
Since Dividend Yield is less than 1, 0 point assigned.
This criteria used Company's Return On Equity (ROE%) to determine its fair value:
Using last 3 valid ROE years (max 20).Average ROE: -222.1%
Since Average ROE is non-positive, 0 point assigned.
This criteria used Company's current price to its 52 week low price to determines its fair value:
Current Price: $4.02
52-Week Low: $2.76
Threshold Price (15% Above 52-Week Low): $3.17
Since Current price is not within 15% threshold, 0 point assigned.
This criteria used Company's Market Cap to determines its fair value:
Market Capitalization: $412 M
Since Market Cap is less than 10B, 1 point assigned.
% Exposure to Total Portfolio
Based on the market cap, we recommend do not exceed 0.5% exposure of Total Portfolio.
Warren Buffett's Owners' Earnings:
No positive free cash flow found (TTM or annual) to compute Owners' Earnings per share.
Note: Many fast-growing companies reinvest heavily, so Owners' Earnings may appear low.
Consider other factors in your valuation.
Value-Trade has assigned 10 points to above Alumis Inc (ALMS) stock.
Fair Value PE
12, Industry Based PE
15, Risk-Free Anchored PE (25% MoS)
18.2. Based on these 3 values, average assigned is
15.07. Value-Trades has assined P/E value
15.07. An average (Current Year EPS + Next Year EPS) earning per share is
$33.18.
Fair value using multiple P/Es (blended): $499.95 (PE 15.07 × EPS $33.18)
So the Final Fair Value is: $499.95
Understanding the Value-Trades P/E Blend (click to expand)
▾
What goes into the blended P/E?
- 20-Year Avg P/E — Long-run market baseline; conservative anchor.
- Fair Value P/E — Score-based (cash, debt, sector, etc.).
- Industry P/E — Peer group norm.
- Growth-Based P/E — Uses tapered growth rates, floored at 15.
- RCFC-Based P/E — Maps cash conversion efficiency.
- ROE-Based P/E — Higher ROE supports higher multiples.
- Risk-Free Anchored P/E — Macro floor tied to 10y yield w/ MoS.
How it works
- Extreme values are clamped/filtered (IQR method).
- Anchors (20y avg, RCFC/ROE, risk-free) are always kept if valid.
- Final fair value = min(Blended PE × EPS, Avg PE × EPS).
P/E Reference Summary
Using EPS: $33.18
| Source |
P/E Ratio |
Implied Fair Value |
| Value-Trades Assigned | 15.07 | $500.02 |
