* Note: Prices are in Million (M) USD.
Description:
Aspen Aerogels, Inc. is a leading innovator in advanced insulation technologies, specializing in the design, development, and manufacturing of high-performance airgel insulation products. Based in Northborough, Massachusetts, Aspen serves a wide array of markets, including energy infrastructure and building applications across North America, Europe, Asia, and Latin America. The company's strong positioning in the growing sectors of energy efficiency and sustainability is bolstered by its proprietary technology and commitment to producing products that enhance energy conservation and significantly reduce carbon emissions. With increasing global demand for environmentally-conscious solutions, Aspen Aerogels is poised for substantial growth and impact in the industrial and commercial markets.
These criteria used Company's Cash, EBITDA and Debt balance to determines its fair value:
Cash : $151 M
Debt : $120 M
EBITDA : $-269 M
Since Ebitda is less than 0, 0 points assigned.
This criteria used industry in which company operates:
Sector: Materials
Industry: Building products & equipment
Based on industry, 3 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's Price To Earning (P/E) Ratio to determines its fair value:
Message: Cannot calculate PE Ratio since EPS is either 0 or negative.
Using default values for calculation.
Forward PE Ratio (using default values): 20.00
Since Forward PE Ratio is between 20 - 25, 2 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's ability to convert Sales into free cash flow to determine fair value:
Using last 16 overlapping fiscal years (max 20).Average Free Cash Flow: $-50 M
Average Revenue: $125 M
Revenue Converted To Free Cash Flow (%): -39.7%
Since Free Cash Flow (FCF) to Revenue percentage is non-positive, 0 point assigned.
This criteria used company's growth potential to calculate its fair value:
Latest Revenue (2024-12-31): $453 M
Revenue 5 Years Ago (2019-12-31): $139 M
Total Growth over 5 Years: 224.8%
5-Year Revenue CAGR (Historical): 26.6%
Forward 5-Year CAGR (Tapered): 13.3%
Since historical Revenue CAGR is greater than 20, 5 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's ability to buy back its own share:
Latest Share Count (2024-12-31): $80 M
Share Count 5 Years Ago (2020-12-31): $26 M
Company is not buying back its own shares, 0 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's dividend payout ratio to determine its fair value:
Next Year Earnings Per Share (EPS): $-0.25
Trailing 12-Month Earnings Per Share (EPS): $0.00
Average Earnings Per Share (EPS): $0.00
Dividend Per Share (DPS): $0
Payout Ratio: 0%
Dividend Yield: 0.00%
⚠️ Caution: Negative earnings detected — Further research is recommended - Next Fiscal Yr EPS: $-0.25
Since Dividend Per Share is less than or equal to 0, 0 point assigned.
Since Dividend Yield is less than 1, 0 point assigned.
This criteria used Company's Return On Equity (ROE%) to determine its fair value:
Using last 12 valid ROE years (max 20).Average ROE: -41.9%
Since Average ROE is non-positive, 0 point assigned.
This criteria used Company's current price to its 52 week low price to determines its fair value:
Current Price: $3.06
52-Week Low: $3.01
Threshold Price (15% Above 52-Week Low): $3.46
Since Current price is within 15% threshold, 5 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's Market Cap to determines its fair value:
Market Capitalization: $266 M
Since Market Cap is less than 10B, 1 point assigned.
% Exposure to Total Portfolio
Based on the market cap, we recommend do not exceed 0.5% exposure of Total Portfolio.
Warren Buffett's Owners' Earnings:
Owners' Earnings (FCF/Share) (TTM ending 2025-09-30): $0.03
Note: Many fast-growing companies reinvest heavily, so Owners' Earnings may appear low.
Consider other factors in your valuation.
Value-Trade has assigned 16 points to above Aspen Aerogels Inc (ASPN) stock.
Last 1 Years Avg PE 22.85, Fair Value PE 12, Industry Based PE 16, Growth Based PE 15, Risk-Free Anchored PE (25% MoS) 18.47. Based on these 5 values, average assigned is 16.86. The fair value of Aspen Aerogels Inc (ASPN) stock cannot be calculated since EBITDA and EPS are either 0 or negative.
