* Note: Prices are in Million (M) USD.
Description:
These criteria used Company's Cash, EBITDA and Debt balance to determines its fair value:
Cash : $50 M
Debt : $1,696 M
EBITDA : $394 M
Net Debt (Debt - Cash): $1,646 M
Since EBITDA cannot cover net debt within 3 years, Avoid This Stock.
This criteria used industry in which company operates:
Sector: Health care
Industry: Medical care facilities
Based on industry, 3 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's Price To Earning (P/E) Ratio to determines its fair value:
Forward PE Ratio: 15.82
Since Forward PE Ratio is between 15 - 20, 3 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's ability to convert Sales into free cash flow to determine fair value:
Using last 4 overlapping fiscal years (max 20).Average Free Cash Flow: $212 M
Average Revenue: $1,799 M
Revenue Converted To Free Cash Flow (%): 11.8%
Since Free Cash Flow (FCF) to Revenue percentage is less than 15, 1 point assigned.
This criteria used company's growth potential to calculate its fair value:
Latest Revenue (2024-12-31): $1,900 M
Revenue 3 Years Ago (2021-12-31): $1,732 M
Total Growth over 3 Years: 9.7%
3-Year Revenue CAGR (Historical): 3.1%
Forward 5-Year CAGR (Tapered): 2.8%
Since historical Revenue CAGR is between 0 - 5, 1 point assigned.
This criteria used Company's ability to buy back its own share:
Error: This stock does not have 5 years of share count data.Using default values for calculation.
Based on default values, 0 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's dividend payout ratio to determine its fair value:
Next Year Earnings Per Share (EPS): $1.50
Trailing 12-Month Earnings Per Share (EPS): $1.31
Average Earnings Per Share (EPS): $1.40
Dividend Per Share (DPS): $0
Payout Ratio: 18%
Dividend Yield: 1.15%
Since company Payout Ratio is less than 50, 2 points assigned.
Since Dividend Yield is greater than 1, 1 point assigned.
This criteria used Company's Return On Equity (ROE%) to determine its fair value:
Using last 3 valid ROE years (max 20).Average ROE: 31.0%
Since Average ROE is greater than 20, 5 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's current price to its 52 week low price to determines its fair value:
Current Price: $22.18
52-Week Low: $18.49
Threshold Price (15% Above 52-Week Low): $21.26
Since Current price is not within 15% threshold, 0 point assigned.
This criteria used Company's Market Cap to determines its fair value:
Market Capitalization: $2,762 M
Since Market Cap is less than 10B, 1 point assigned.
% Exposure to Total Portfolio
Based on the market cap, we recommend do not exceed 2% exposure of Total Portfolio.
Warren Buffett's Owners' Earnings:
No positive free cash flow found (TTM or annual) to compute Owners' Earnings per share.
Note: Many fast-growing companies reinvest heavily, so Owners' Earnings may appear low.
Consider other factors in your valuation.
Value-Trade has assigned 17 points to above Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. (CON) stock.
Heads up: One or more P/E inputs look exaggerated and may skew the blend.
• ROE Based PE
31.04 (>2× median)
Further research is recommended; please use your own due diligence.In such cases, multiplying earnings by the long-run average P/E typically gives a closer, more reliable fair value.
Rule of thumb: Last 2 Years Avg P/E (18.86)
× EPS ($1.40) = $26.45.
Last 2 Years Avg PE
18.86, Fair Value PE
12, Industry Based PE
15, Growth Based PE
15, RCFC Based PE
11.78, ROE Based PE
31.04, Risk-Free Anchored PE (25% MoS)
18.12. Based on these 7 values, average assigned is
17.40. Value-Trades has assined P/E value
17.40. An average (Current Year EPS + Next Year EPS) earning per share is
$1.4023.
Note: Final fair value is the lesser of the blended PE-based fair value and the simple average PE × EPS fair value.Fair value using multiple P/Es (blended): $24.40 (PE 17.40 × EPS $1.40)
Fair value using simple average PE × EPS: $26.45 (PE 18.86 × EPS $1.40)
Lesser of these two: $24.40
So the Final Fair Value is: $24.40
Understanding the Value-Trades P/E Blend (click to expand)
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What goes into the blended P/E?
- 20-Year Avg P/E — Long-run market baseline; conservative anchor.
- Fair Value P/E — Score-based (cash, debt, sector, etc.).
- Industry P/E — Peer group norm.
- Growth-Based P/E — Uses tapered growth rates, floored at 15.
- RCFC-Based P/E — Maps cash conversion efficiency.
- ROE-Based P/E — Higher ROE supports higher multiples.
- Risk-Free Anchored P/E — Macro floor tied to 10y yield w/ MoS.
How it works
- Extreme values are clamped/filtered (IQR method).
- Anchors (20y avg, RCFC/ROE, risk-free) are always kept if valid.
- Final fair value = min(Blended PE × EPS, Avg PE × EPS).
P/E Reference Summary
Using EPS: $1.40
| Source |
P/E Ratio |
Implied Fair Value |
| Market (1 Yr Ago) | 18.92 | $26.53 |
| 2 Yrs Avg-PE | 18.86 | $26.45 |
| Value-Trades Assigned | 17.4 | $24.40 |
Note: Only 2 years of reliable P/E data available. Fair value is calculated using blended models to reduce bias.
