* Note: Prices are in Million (M) USD.
Description:
Golub Capital BDC Inc (ticker: GBDC) is a prominent business development company that specializes in providing tailored financing solutions to middle-market companies, effectively bridging the capital gap in this crucial segment of the economy. Since its inception in 2001 and public listing in 2013, the firm prioritizes senior secured loans, fostering a diversified investment portfolio that aims to generate attractive risk-adjusted returns for its shareholders. Renowned for its robust credit quality and operational stability, Golub Capital is led by a highly experienced management team committed to thorough analysis and disciplined investing. With a strategic emphasis on enhancing the growth potential of its portfolio companies, Golub Capital presents an enticing opportunity for institutional investors seeking reliable performance within the alternative investment landscape.
These criteria used Company's Cash, EBITDA and Debt balance to determines its fair value:
Note: Financial institutions (banks/insurers/brokers/REITs) are evaluated using sector, P/E, growth, ROE and other factors. The 3.5× Net Debt/EBITDA rule is skipped to avoid misleading signals; however, Cash/Debt/EBITDA are still displayed and counted for scoring.
Cash : $128 M
Debt : $949 M
EBITDA : $431 M
Net Debt (Debt - Cash): $821 M
Since Net Debt is covered by EBITDA within 2 years, 2 points assigned.
This criteria used industry in which company operates:
Sector: Financial services
Industry: Asset management
Based on industry, 3 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's Price To Earning (P/E) Ratio to determines its fair value:
Forward PE Ratio: 9.97
Since Forward PE Ratio is less than 15, 5 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's ability to convert Sales into free cash flow to determine fair value:
Using last 19 overlapping fiscal years (max 20).Average Free Cash Flow: $-77 M
Average Revenue: $165 M
Revenue Converted To Free Cash Flow (%): -46.4%
Since Free Cash Flow (FCF) to Revenue percentage is non-positive, 0 point assigned.
This criteria used company's growth potential to calculate its fair value:
Latest Revenue (2025-09-30): $871 M
Revenue 5 Years Ago (2020-09-30): $67 M
Total Growth over 5 Years: 1,202.9%
5-Year Revenue CAGR (Historical): 67.1%
Forward 5-Year CAGR (Tapered): 33.6%
Since historical Revenue CAGR is greater than 20, 5 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's ability to buy back its own share:
Latest Share Count (2025-09-30): $266 M
Share Count 5 Years Ago (2021-09-30): $168 M
Company is not buying back its own shares, 0 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's dividend payout ratio to determine its fair value:
Next Year Earnings Per Share (EPS): $1.26
Trailing 12-Month Earnings Per Share (EPS): $1.36
Average Earnings Per Share (EPS): $1.31
Dividend Per Share (DPS): $2
Payout Ratio: 114%
Dividend Yield: 11.20%
⚠️ Caution: Further research is recommended — dividend payout ratio is too high (114%).
Since company Payout Ratio is greater than 50, 1 point assigned.
Since Dividend Yield is greater than 5, 5 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's Return On Equity (ROE%) to determine its fair value:
Using last 17 valid ROE years (max 20).Average ROE: 8.4%
Since Average ROE is less than 10, 1 point assigned.
This criteria used Company's current price to its 52 week low price to determines its fair value:
Current Price: $13.07
52-Week Low: $11.45
Threshold Price (15% Above 52-Week Low): $13.17
Since Current price is within 15% threshold, 5 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's Market Cap to determines its fair value:
Market Capitalization: $3,457 M
Since Market Cap is less than 10B, 1 point assigned.
% Exposure to Total Portfolio
Based on the market cap, we recommend do not exceed 2% exposure of Total Portfolio.
Warren Buffett's Owners' Earnings:
Owners' Earnings (FCF/Share) (TTM ending 2026-03-31): $1.18
Owners' Earnings (FCF/Share, latest positive annual) (2024-09-30): $1.29
Note: Many fast-growing companies reinvest heavily, so Owners' Earnings may appear low.
Consider other factors in your valuation.
Value-Trade has assigned 28 points to above Golub Capital BDC Inc (GBDC) stock.
Heads up: One or more P/E inputs look exaggerated and may skew the blend.
• Growth Based PE
50.00 (>2× median)
Further research is recommended; please use your own due diligence.In such cases, multiplying earnings by the long-run average P/E typically gives a closer, more reliable fair value.
Rule of thumb: Last 13 Years Avg P/E (6.80)
× EPS ($1.31) = $8.91.
Last 13 Years Avg PE
6.8, Fair Value PE
15, Industry Based PE
15, Growth Based PE
50, ROE Based PE
8.45, Risk-Free Anchored PE (25% MoS)
16.74. Based on these 6 values, average assigned is
18.67. Value-Trades has assined P/E value
6.80. An average (Current Year EPS + Next Year EPS) earning per share is
$1.3109.
Note: Final fair value is the lesser of the blended PE-based fair value and the simple average PE × EPS fair value.Fair value using multiple P/Es (blended): $24.47 (PE 18.67 × EPS $1.31)
Fair value using simple average PE × EPS: $8.91 (PE 6.80 × EPS $1.31)
Lesser of these two: $8.91
So the Final Fair Value is: $8.91
Understanding the Value-Trades P/E Blend (click to expand)
▾
What goes into the blended P/E?
- 20-Year Avg P/E — Long-run market baseline; conservative anchor.
- Fair Value P/E — Score-based (cash, debt, sector, etc.).
- Industry P/E — Peer group norm.
- Growth-Based P/E — Uses tapered growth rates, floored at 15.
- RCFC-Based P/E — Maps cash conversion efficiency.
- ROE-Based P/E — Higher ROE supports higher multiples.
- Risk-Free Anchored P/E — Macro floor tied to 10y yield w/ MoS.
How it works
- Extreme values are clamped/filtered (IQR method).
- Anchors (20y avg, RCFC/ROE, risk-free) are always kept if valid.
- Final fair value = min(Blended PE × EPS, Avg PE × EPS).
P/E Reference Summary
Using EPS: $1.31
Using Owners' Earnings (Latest FCF/Share): $1.18
Note: Many highly growing companies reinvest heavily back into the business,
so their Owners' Earnings may appear very low. In such cases, other criteria should
be considered to assess the company’s true worth.
| Source |
P/E Ratio |
Implied Fair Value |
| Market (1 Yr Ago) | 8.8 | $11.54 |
| 13 Yrs Avg-PE | 6.8 | $8.91 |
| Value-Trades Assigned | 6.8 | $8.91 |
| Owners' Earnings × 13 Yrs Avg-PE | 6.8 | $8.02 |
Financials mode
3.5× Net Debt/EBITDA penalty is disabled; Cash/Debt/EBITDA are shown and counted.
