* Note: Prices are in Million (M) USD.
Description:
Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN) is a publicly traded business development company that specializes in providing customized debt and equity financing solutions to lower middle-market companies. With a strategic focus on long-term investments, MAIN seeks to generate attractive risk-adjusted returns by leveraging its extensive industry experience and robust investment expertise. The company primarily targets investments in various sectors, including manufacturing, healthcare, and business services, aiming to support growth-oriented companies while delivering strong income streams to its shareholders. MAIN's disciplined investment approach and commitment to value creation position it favorably in the dynamic landscape of private equity and lower middle-market financing.
These criteria used Company's Cash, EBITDA and Debt balance to determines its fair value:
Note: Financial institutions (banks/insurers/brokers/REITs) are evaluated using sector, P/E, growth, ROE and other factors. The 3.5× Net Debt/EBITDA rule is skipped to avoid misleading signals; however, Cash/Debt/EBITDA are still displayed and counted for scoring.
Cash : $31 M
Debt : $2,150 M
EBITDA : $555 M
Net Debt (Debt - Cash): $2,119 M
This criteria used industry in which company operates:
Sector: Financial services
Industry: Asset management
Based on industry, 3 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's Price To Earning (P/E) Ratio to determines its fair value:
Forward PE Ratio: 15.02
Since Forward PE Ratio is between 15 - 20, 3 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's ability to convert Sales into free cash flow to determine fair value:
Using last 20 overlapping fiscal years (max 20).Average Free Cash Flow: $-58 M
Average Revenue: $197 M
Revenue Converted To Free Cash Flow (%): -29.5%
Since Free Cash Flow (FCF) to Revenue percentage is non-positive, 0 point assigned.
This criteria used company's growth potential to calculate its fair value:
Latest Revenue (2024-12-31): $725 M
Revenue 5 Years Ago (2019-12-31): $168 M
Total Growth over 5 Years: 331.9%
5-Year Revenue CAGR (Historical): 34.0%
Forward 5-Year CAGR (Tapered): 17.0%
Since historical Revenue CAGR is greater than 20, 5 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's ability to buy back its own share:
Latest Share Count (2024-12-31): $89 M
Share Count 5 Years Ago (2020-12-31): $66 M
Company is not buying back its own shares, 0 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's dividend payout ratio to determine its fair value:
Next Year Earnings Per Share (EPS): $3.95
Trailing 12-Month Earnings Per Share (EPS): $3.96
Average Earnings Per Share (EPS): $3.96
Dividend Per Share (DPS): $3
Payout Ratio: 76%
Dividend Yield: 4.87%
⚠️ Caution: Further research is recommended — dividend payout ratio is too high (76%).
Since company Payout Ratio is greater than 50, 1 point assigned.
Since Dividend Yield is greater than 4, 4 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's Return On Equity (ROE%) to determine its fair value:
Using last 19 valid ROE years (max 20).Average ROE: 13.0%
Since Average ROE is between 10 - 20, 3 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's current price to its 52 week low price to determines its fair value:
Current Price: $59.44
52-Week Low: $44.38
Threshold Price (15% Above 52-Week Low): $51.04
Since Current price is not within 15% threshold, 0 point assigned.
This criteria used Company's Market Cap to determines its fair value:
Market Capitalization: $5,455 M
Since Market Cap is less than 10B, 1 point assigned.
% Exposure to Total Portfolio
Based on the market cap, we recommend do not exceed 2% exposure of Total Portfolio.
Warren Buffett's Owners' Earnings:
Owners' Earnings (FCF/Share) (TTM ending 2025-09-30): $4.47
Owners' Earnings (FCF/Share, latest positive annual) (2023-12-31): $3.22
Note: Many fast-growing companies reinvest heavily, so Owners' Earnings may appear low.
Consider other factors in your valuation.
Value-Trade has assigned 20 points to above Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN) stock.
Last 15 Years Avg PE
8.99, Fair Value PE
15, Industry Based PE
15, Growth Based PE
16.99, ROE Based PE
13, Risk-Free Anchored PE (25% MoS)
17.81. Based on these 6 values, average assigned is
14.47. Value-Trades has assined P/E value
14.47. An average (Current Year EPS + Next Year EPS) earning per share is
$3.9566.
Fair value using multiple P/Es (blended): $57.24 (PE 14.47 × EPS $3.96)
So the Final Fair Value is: $57.24
Understanding the Value-Trades P/E Blend (click to expand)
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What goes into the blended P/E?
- 20-Year Avg P/E — Long-run market baseline; conservative anchor.
- Fair Value P/E — Score-based (cash, debt, sector, etc.).
- Industry P/E — Peer group norm.
- Growth-Based P/E — Uses tapered growth rates, floored at 15.
- RCFC-Based P/E — Maps cash conversion efficiency.
- ROE-Based P/E — Higher ROE supports higher multiples.
- Risk-Free Anchored P/E — Macro floor tied to 10y yield w/ MoS.
How it works
- Extreme values are clamped/filtered (IQR method).
- Anchors (20y avg, RCFC/ROE, risk-free) are always kept if valid.
- Final fair value = min(Blended PE × EPS, Avg PE × EPS).
P/E Reference Summary
Using EPS: $3.96
Using Owners' Earnings (Latest FCF/Share): $4.47
Note: Many highly growing companies reinvest heavily back into the business,
so their Owners' Earnings may appear very low. In such cases, other criteria should
be considered to assess the company’s true worth.
| Source |
P/E Ratio |
Implied Fair Value |
| Market (1 Yr Ago) | 17.56 | $69.48 |
| 15 Yrs Avg-PE | 8.99 | $35.57 |
| Value-Trades Assigned | 14.47 | $57.25 |
| Owners' Earnings × 15 Yrs Avg-PE | 8.99 | $40.19 |
Financials mode
3.5× Net Debt/EBITDA penalty is disabled; Cash/Debt/EBITDA are shown and counted.
