* Note: Prices are in Million (M) USD.
Description:
MP Materials Corp. is a leading rare earth materials company based in Las Vegas, Nevada, specializing in the production and supply of critical materials essential for advanced technologies, including electric vehicles, renewable energy, and high-tech applications. As the largest producer of rare earth materials in North America, MP Materials plays a vital role in the domestic supply chain, contributing to national security and the transition to a green economy. The company leverages its proprietary technologies and extensive resource base to deliver high-purity rare earth oxides, positioning itself as a key player in the global market for sustainable materials.
These criteria used Company's Cash, EBITDA and Debt balance to determines its fair value:
Cash : $262 M
Debt : $911 M
EBITDA : $-28 M
Net Debt (Debt - Cash): $649 M
Since Ebitda is less than 0, 0 points assigned.
This criteria used industry in which company operates:
Sector: Basic materials
Industry: Dimension stone mining and quarrying
Based on industry, 3 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's Price To Earning (P/E) Ratio to determines its fair value:
Forward PE Ratio: 83.09
Since Forward PE Ratio is greater than 35, 0 point assigned.
This criteria used Company's ability to convert Sales into free cash flow to determine fair value:
Using last 7 overlapping fiscal years (max 20).Average Free Cash Flow: $-55 M
Average Revenue: $227 M
Revenue Converted To Free Cash Flow (%): -24.3%
Since Free Cash Flow (FCF) to Revenue percentage is non-positive, 0 point assigned.
This criteria used company's growth potential to calculate its fair value:
Latest Revenue (2024-12-31): $204 M
Revenue 5 Years Ago (2019-12-31): $73 M
Total Growth over 5 Years: 177.7%
5-Year Revenue CAGR (Historical): 22.7%
Forward 5-Year CAGR (Tapered): 15.9%
Since historical Revenue CAGR is greater than 20, 5 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's ability to buy back its own share:
Latest Share Count (2024-12-31): $170 M
Share Count 5 Years Ago (2020-12-31): $80 M
Company is not buying back its own shares, 0 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's dividend payout ratio to determine its fair value:
Next Year Earnings Per Share (EPS): $0.86
Trailing 12-Month Earnings Per Share (EPS): $0.00
Average Earnings Per Share (EPS): $0.86
Dividend Per Share (DPS): $0
Payout Ratio: 0%
Dividend Yield: 0%
Since Dividend Per Share is less than or equal to 0, 0 point assigned.
Since Dividend Yield is less than 1, 0 point assigned.
This criteria used Company's Return On Equity (ROE%) to determine its fair value:
Using last 5 valid ROE years (max 20).Average ROE: 5.7%
Since Average ROE is less than 10, 1 point assigned.
This criteria used Company's current price to its 52 week low price to determines its fair value:
Current Price: $71.49
52-Week Low: $15.56
Threshold Price (15% Above 52-Week Low): $17.89
Since Current price is not within 15% threshold, 0 point assigned.
This criteria used Company's Market Cap to determines its fair value:
Market Capitalization: $12,567 M
Since Market Cap is between 10B - 100B, 2 points assigned.
% Exposure to Total Portfolio
Based on high P/E, we recommend do not exceed 0.20% exposure of Total Portfolio.
Warren Buffett's Owners' Earnings:
Owners' Earnings (FCF/Share, latest positive annual) (2022-12-31): $0.10
Note: Many fast-growing companies reinvest heavily, so Owners' Earnings may appear low.
Consider other factors in your valuation.
Value-Trade has assigned 11 points to above MP Materials Corp (MP) stock.
Last 1 Years Avg PE
14.2, Fair Value PE
12, Industry Based PE
12, Growth Based PE
15.86, ROE Based PE
5.69, Risk-Free Anchored PE (25% MoS)
18.2. Based on these 6 values, average assigned is
12.99. Value-Trades has assined P/E value
12.99. An average (Current Year EPS + Next Year EPS) earning per share is
$0.8604.
Fair value using multiple P/Es (blended): $11.18 (PE 12.99 × EPS $0.86)
So the Final Fair Value is: $11.18
Understanding the Value-Trades P/E Blend (click to expand)
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What goes into the blended P/E?
- 20-Year Avg P/E — Long-run market baseline; conservative anchor.
- Fair Value P/E — Score-based (cash, debt, sector, etc.).
- Industry P/E — Peer group norm.
- Growth-Based P/E — Uses tapered growth rates, floored at 15.
- RCFC-Based P/E — Maps cash conversion efficiency.
- ROE-Based P/E — Higher ROE supports higher multiples.
- Risk-Free Anchored P/E — Macro floor tied to 10y yield w/ MoS.
How it works
- Extreme values are clamped/filtered (IQR method).
- Anchors (20y avg, RCFC/ROE, risk-free) are always kept if valid.
- Final fair value = min(Blended PE × EPS, Avg PE × EPS).
P/E Reference Summary
Using EPS: $0.86
Using Owners' Earnings (Latest FCF/Share): $0.10
Note: Many highly growing companies reinvest heavily back into the business,
so their Owners' Earnings may appear very low. In such cases, other criteria should
be considered to assess the company’s true worth.
| Source |
P/E Ratio |
Implied Fair Value |
| Market (1 Yr Ago) | 52.24 | $44.95 |
| 1 Yrs Avg-PE | 14.2 | $12.22 |
| Value-Trades Assigned | 12.99 | $11.18 |
| Owners' Earnings × 1 Yrs Avg-PE | 14.2 | $1.42 |
Note: Only 1 years of reliable P/E data available. Fair value is calculated using blended models to reduce bias.
