* Note: Prices are in Million (M) USD.
Description:
Moderna, Inc. is a leading biotechnology company headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts, specializing in the development of messenger RNA (mRNA) technology for vaccine and therapeutic applications. Renowned for its pivotal role in combating infectious diseases, notably its COVID-19 vaccine, Moderna is expanding its portfolio to address a diverse range of health conditions, including immuno-oncology, rare diseases, cardiovascular diseases, and autoimmune disorders. With a strong focus on innovation and a robust pipeline, Moderna aims to transform the landscape of medicine through its groundbreaking mRNA platform.
These criteria used Company's Cash, EBITDA and Debt balance to determines its fair value:
Cash : $1,279 M
Debt : $43 M
EBITDA : $-2,723 M
Since Ebitda is less than 0, 0 points assigned.
This criteria used industry in which company operates:
Sector: Healthcare
Industry: Biotechnology
Biotechnology detected → treating as non-Technology. 3 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's Price To Earning (P/E) Ratio to determines its fair value:
Message: Cannot calculate PE Ratio since EPS is either 0 or negative.
Using default values for calculation.
Forward PE Ratio (using default values): 20.00
Since Forward PE Ratio is between 20 - 25, 2 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's ability to convert Sales into free cash flow to determine fair value:
Using last 11 overlapping fiscal years (max 20).Average Free Cash Flow: $973 M
Average Revenue: $4,311 M
Revenue Converted To Free Cash Flow (%): 22.6%
Since Free Cash Flow (FCF) to Revenue percentage is greater than 15, 3 points assigned.
This criteria used company's growth potential to calculate its fair value:
Latest Revenue (2024-12-31): $3,199 M
Revenue 5 Years Ago (2019-12-31): $48 M
Total Growth over 5 Years: 6,559.6%
5-Year Revenue CAGR (Historical): 131.6%
Forward 5-Year CAGR (Tapered): 65.8%
Since historical Revenue CAGR is greater than 20, 5 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's ability to buy back its own share:
Latest Share Count (2024-12-31): $384 M
Share Count 5 Years Ago (2020-12-31): $381 M
Company is not buying back its own shares, 0 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's dividend payout ratio to determine its fair value:
Next Year Earnings Per Share (EPS): $-7.48
Trailing 12-Month Earnings Per Share (EPS): $0.00
Average Earnings Per Share (EPS): $0.00
Dividend Per Share (DPS): $0
Payout Ratio: 0%
Dividend Yield: 0%
⚠️ Caution: Negative earnings detected — Further research is recommended - Next Fiscal Yr EPS: $-7.48
Since Dividend Per Share is less than or equal to 0, 0 point assigned.
Since Dividend Yield is less than 1, 0 point assigned.
This criteria used Company's Return On Equity (ROE%) to determine its fair value:
Using last 10 valid ROE years (max 20).Average ROE: -133.1%
Since Average ROE is non-positive, 0 point assigned.
This criteria used Company's current price to its 52 week low price to determines its fair value:
Current Price: $28.37
52-Week Low: $23.15
Threshold Price (15% Above 52-Week Low): $26.62
Since Current price is not within 15% threshold, 0 point assigned.
This criteria used Company's Market Cap to determines its fair value:
Market Capitalization: $10,739 M
Since Market Cap is between 10B - 100B, 2 points assigned.
% Exposure to Total Portfolio
Based on the market cap, we recommend do not exceed 3% exposure of Total Portfolio.
Warren Buffett's Owners' Earnings:
Owners' Earnings (FCF/Share, latest positive annual) (2022-12-31): $11.93
Note: Many fast-growing companies reinvest heavily, so Owners' Earnings may appear low.
Consider other factors in your valuation.
Value-Trade has assigned 15 points to above Moderna Inc (MRNA) stock.
Heads up: One or more P/E inputs look exaggerated and may skew the blend.
• Growth Based PE 50.00 (>2× median)
Further research is recommended; please use your own due diligence.
In such cases, multiplying earnings by the long-run average P/E typically gives a closer, more reliable fair value.
Last 2 Years Avg PE 8.99, Fair Value PE 12, Industry Based PE 15, Growth Based PE 50, RCFC Based PE 22.58, Risk-Free Anchored PE (25% MoS) 18.2. Based on these 6 values, average assigned is 21.13. The fair value of Moderna Inc (MRNA) stock cannot be calculated since EBITDA and EPS are either 0 or negative.
