* Note: Prices are in Million (M) USD.
Description:
National CineMedia, Inc., through its subsidiary, National CineMedia, LLC, operates a theatrical advertising network in North America. The company is headquartered in Centennial, Colorado.
These criteria used Company's Cash, EBITDA and Debt balance to determines its fair value:
Cash : $75 M
Debt : $23 M
EBITDA : $29 M
Since Cash is greater than Total Debt, 5 points assigned.
This criteria used industry in which company operates:
Sector: Communication
Industry: Advertising agencies
Based on industry, 3 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's Price To Earning (P/E) Ratio to determines its fair value:
Forward PE Ratio: 32.47
Since Forward PE Ratio is between 25 - 35, 1 point assigned.
This criteria used Company's ability to convert Sales into free cash flow to determine fair value:
Using last 19 overlapping fiscal years (max 20).Average Free Cash Flow: $72 M
Average Revenue: $343 M
Revenue Converted To Free Cash Flow (%): 21.1%
Since Free Cash Flow (FCF) to Revenue percentage is greater than 15, 3 points assigned.
This criteria used company's growth potential to calculate its fair value:
Latest Revenue (2025-12-31): $1 M
Revenue 5 Years Ago (2020-12-31): $90 M
Total Growth over 5 Years: -99.4%
5-Year Revenue CAGR (Historical): -63.7%
Forward 5-Year CAGR (Tapered): -57.4%
Since historical Revenue CAGR is between 0 - 5, 1 point assigned.
This criteria used Company's ability to buy back its own share:
Latest Share Count (2025-12-31): $0 M
Share Count 5 Years Ago (2021-12-31): $8 M
Company is buying back its own shares, 3 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's dividend payout ratio to determine its fair value:
Next Year Earnings Per Share (EPS): $0.16
Trailing 12-Month Earnings Per Share (EPS): $0.06
Average Earnings Per Share (EPS): $0.11
Dividend Per Share (DPS): $0
Payout Ratio: 84%
Dividend Yield: 2.56%
⚠️ Caution: Further research is recommended — dividend payout ratio is too high (84%).
Since company Payout Ratio is greater than 50, 1 point assigned.
Since Dividend Yield is greater than 2, 2 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's Return On Equity (ROE%) to determine its fair value:
Using last 4 valid ROE years (max 20).Average ROE: -15.8%
Since Average ROE is non-positive, 0 point assigned.
This criteria used Company's current price to its 52 week low price to determines its fair value:
Current Price: $3.49
52-Week Low: $3.17
Threshold Price (15% Above 52-Week Low): $3.65
Since Current price is within 15% threshold, 5 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's Market Cap to determines its fair value:
Market Capitalization: $334 M
Since Market Cap is less than 10B, 1 point assigned.
% Exposure to Total Portfolio
Based on the market cap, we recommend do not exceed 0.5% exposure of Total Portfolio.
Warren Buffett's Owners' Earnings:
No positive free cash flow found (TTM or annual) to compute Owners' Earnings per share.
Note: Many fast-growing companies reinvest heavily, so Owners' Earnings may appear low.
Consider other factors in your valuation.
Value-Trade has assigned 25 points to above National CineMedia Inc (NCMI) stock.
Fair Value PE
15, Industry Based PE
18, RCFC Based PE
21.09, Risk-Free Anchored PE (25% MoS)
18.16. Based on these 4 values, average assigned is
18.06. Value-Trades has assined P/E value
18.05. An average (Current Year EPS + Next Year EPS) earning per share is
$0.1075.
Fair value using multiple P/Es (blended): $1.94 (PE 18.06 × EPS $0.11)
So the Final Fair Value is: $1.94
Understanding the Value-Trades P/E Blend (click to expand)
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What goes into the blended P/E?
- 20-Year Avg P/E — Long-run market baseline; conservative anchor.
- Fair Value P/E — Score-based (cash, debt, sector, etc.).
- Industry P/E — Peer group norm.
- Growth-Based P/E — Uses tapered growth rates, floored at 15.
- RCFC-Based P/E — Maps cash conversion efficiency.
- ROE-Based P/E — Higher ROE supports higher multiples.
- Risk-Free Anchored P/E — Macro floor tied to 10y yield w/ MoS.
How it works
- Extreme values are clamped/filtered (IQR method).
- Anchors (20y avg, RCFC/ROE, risk-free) are always kept if valid.
- Final fair value = min(Blended PE × EPS, Avg PE × EPS).
P/E Reference Summary
Using EPS: $0.11
| Source |
P/E Ratio |
Implied Fair Value |
| Market (1 Yr Ago) | 124.75 | $13.41 |
| Value-Trades Assigned | 18.05 | $1.94 |
