* Note: Prices are in Million (M) USD.
Description:
These criteria used Company's Cash, EBITDA and Debt balance to determines its fair value:
Note: Financial institutions (banks/insurers/brokers/REITs) are evaluated using sector, P/E, growth, ROE and other factors. The 3.5× Net Debt/EBITDA rule is skipped to avoid misleading signals; however, Cash/Debt/EBITDA are still displayed and counted for scoring.
Cash : $35,562 M
Debt : $49,264 M
EBITDA : $45 M
Net Debt (Debt - Cash): $13,702 M
This criteria used industry in which company operates:
Sector: Financials
Industry: Reit - mortgage
Based on industry, 3 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's Price To Earning (P/E) Ratio to determines its fair value:
Forward PE Ratio: 7.04
Since Forward PE Ratio is less than 15, 5 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's ability to convert Sales into free cash flow to determine fair value:
Using last 4 overlapping fiscal years (max 20).Average Free Cash Flow: $15 M
Average Revenue: $2,810 M
Revenue Converted To Free Cash Flow (%): 0.5%
Since Free Cash Flow (FCF) to Revenue percentage is less than 15, 1 point assigned.
This criteria used company's growth potential to calculate its fair value:
Latest Revenue (2024-12-31): $55 M
Revenue 3 Years Ago (2021-12-31): $11,075 M
Total Growth over 3 Years: -99.5%
3-Year Revenue CAGR (Historical): -83.0%
Forward 5-Year CAGR (Tapered): -74.7%
Since historical Revenue CAGR is between 0 - 5, 1 point assigned.
This criteria used Company's ability to buy back its own share:
Error: This stock does not have 5 years of share count data.Using default values for calculation.
Based on default values, 0 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's dividend payout ratio to determine its fair value:
Next Year Earnings Per Share (EPS): $1.72
Trailing 12-Month Earnings Per Share (EPS): $1.84
Average Earnings Per Share (EPS): $1.78
Dividend Per Share (DPS): $2
Payout Ratio: 106%
Dividend Yield: 13%
⚠️ Caution: Further research is recommended — dividend payout ratio is too high (106%).
Since company Payout Ratio is greater than 50, 1 point assigned.
Since Dividend Yield is greater than 5, 5 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's Return On Equity (ROE%) to determine its fair value:
Using last 4 valid ROE years (max 20).Average ROE: 908.6%
Since Average ROE is greater than 20, 5 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's current price to its 52 week low price to determines its fair value:
Current Price: $12.53
52-Week Low: $12.35
Threshold Price (15% Above 52-Week Low): $14.20
Since Current price is within 15% threshold, 5 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's Market Cap to determines its fair value:
Market Capitalization: $301 M
Since Market Cap is less than 10B, 1 point assigned.
% Exposure to Total Portfolio
Based on the market cap, we recommend do not exceed 0.5% exposure of Total Portfolio.
Warren Buffett's Owners' Earnings:
No positive free cash flow found (TTM or annual) to compute Owners' Earnings per share.
Note: Many fast-growing companies reinvest heavily, so Owners' Earnings may appear low.
Consider other factors in your valuation.
Value-Trade has assigned 27 points to above Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc (REFI) stock.
Heads up: One or more P/E inputs look exaggerated and may skew the blend.
• ROE Based PE
50.00 (>2× median)
Further research is recommended; please use your own due diligence.In such cases, multiplying earnings by the long-run average P/E typically gives a closer, more reliable fair value.
Rule of thumb: Last 3 Years Avg P/E (6.62)
× EPS ($1.78) = $11.78.
Last 3 Years Avg PE
6.62, Fair Value PE
15, Industry Based PE
15, RCFC Based PE
0.55, ROE Based PE
50, Risk-Free Anchored PE (25% MoS)
18.2. Based on these 6 values, average assigned is
17.56. Value-Trades has assined P/E value
6.62. An average (Current Year EPS + Next Year EPS) earning per share is
$1.78.
Note: Final fair value is the lesser of the blended PE-based fair value and the simple average PE × EPS fair value.Fair value using multiple P/Es (blended): $31.26 (PE 17.56 × EPS $1.78)
Fair value using simple average PE × EPS: $11.78 (PE 6.62 × EPS $1.78)
Lesser of these two: $11.78
So the Final Fair Value is: $11.78
Understanding the Value-Trades P/E Blend (click to expand)
▾
What goes into the blended P/E?
- 20-Year Avg P/E — Long-run market baseline; conservative anchor.
- Fair Value P/E — Score-based (cash, debt, sector, etc.).
- Industry P/E — Peer group norm.
- Growth-Based P/E — Uses tapered growth rates, floored at 15.
- RCFC-Based P/E — Maps cash conversion efficiency.
- ROE-Based P/E — Higher ROE supports higher multiples.
- Risk-Free Anchored P/E — Macro floor tied to 10y yield w/ MoS.
How it works
- Extreme values are clamped/filtered (IQR method).
- Anchors (20y avg, RCFC/ROE, risk-free) are always kept if valid.
- Final fair value = min(Blended PE × EPS, Avg PE × EPS).
P/E Reference Summary
Using EPS: $1.78
| Source |
P/E Ratio |
Implied Fair Value |
| Market (1 Yr Ago) | 7.69 | $13.69 |
| 3 Yrs Avg-PE | 6.62 | $11.78 |
| Value-Trades Assigned | 6.62 | $11.78 |
Note: Only 3 years of reliable P/E data available. Fair value is calculated using blended models to reduce bias.
Financials mode
3.5× Net Debt/EBITDA penalty is disabled; Cash/Debt/EBITDA are shown and counted.
